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Commercial Transformation Index · Evidence and provenance

Every CTI finding stays traceable to the evidence behind it.

The Commercial Transformation Index (CTI) records, for every piece of evidence it uses, how it was obtained, what population and period it describes and which of four evidence classes it belongs to, and carries that with the finding all the way to publication. A CTI figure can therefore be traced back to its evidence class, its source, the population it describes and the period it covers.

That traceability is what lets a finding be quoted accurately, challenged specifically and used in a decision that somebody else will examine. Where it is missing, the finding is not published.

An aisle of server racks in a data hall.

The four evidence classes

What are the four CTI evidence classes?

The Commercial Transformation Index classifies every piece of evidence as observed, self-reported, validated or source-specific. The class records how something is known, and it travels with every figure built on it, so a finding is labelled with the classes behind it wherever it appears.

Evidence class is not a quality rating. The four classes describe how something is known, not how good it is, and they are held at matched weight so that no class reads as a warning. What changes between them is what a finding built on that class can be used for, and how far an assessment can go: observed evidence needs nothing from the organisation, self-reported evidence needs a participant, and validated evidence needs supporting material an assessor can review. That is why the four CTI assessment routes produce different classes, and why every result states which it rests on.

Which assessment produces which classes

Commercial Maturity Assessment
Observed · Self-reported
Full CTI Audit
Validated CTI evidence · Observed · Self-reported · Source-specific
  1. Evidence class: Observed

    Externally observable signals gathered through scans and public sources.
    Supports
    Findings about what an organisation makes visible and what a machine can read from it, comparable across organisations because it needs no access and no permission.
    Limit
    It describes the organisation at the time it was observed and cannot see inside it.
  2. Evidence class: Self-reported

    Self-reported participant answers.
    Supports
    Findings about how participants describe their own commercial systems, and an indicative whole-system view when combined with observed evidence.
    Limit
    Self-reported evidence is never presented as audited fact; a finding built on it is labelled as such.
  3. Evidence class: Validated CTI evidence

    Evidence-reviewed Full CTI Audit assessment.
    Supports
    The highest CTI confidence tier: validated findings and a validated Commercial Maturity Band that hold when examined by somebody outside the organisation.
    Limit
    It exists only where an assessor has reviewed supporting material, so it describes assessed organisations rather than a market at large.
  4. Evidence class: Source-specific

    External market, economic and sector sources.
    Supports
    Context for a finding: the conditions a cohort operates in, and CTI analysis of a named source’s own evidence, attributed to that source.
    Limit
    What it can establish depends on the source and its provenance, and it never establishes anything about a specific organisation on its own.

Open a class to see what a finding built on it can support and where its limit sits. The class travels with every published figure.

Why provenance

Why does provenance decide whether a CTI finding can be used?

Provenance is the record of where a finding came from: its source, the methodology version it was produced under, the period it covers, the population it describes, the evidence classes behind it and the limits of what it can establish. A reader who has those six can tell whether a figure applies to their situation, how much confidence it deserves and how to cite it. A reader who does not has a number.

The Commercial Transformation Index treats provenance as part of the finding rather than as an appendix. Every published chart carries its source, period and sample note, every publication states its population, evidence classes and limitations, and publication fails where any of them is missing.

How evidence becomes intelligence

How does assessment evidence become published intelligence?

Evidence gathered in a CTI assessment belongs to the organisation that was assessed and is private by default. It contributes to published intelligence only where research use has been agreed, only as part of an aggregate that clears CTI's cohort suppression rules, and only with its population, evidence classes, period and limitations attached.

A dispersed field of individual points converging through a threshold line into a dense, measurable population.
  1. 01

    An organisation is assessed

    An assessment produces evidence about one commercial system and returns a result to that organisation. The result is private by default.

    Private

  2. 02

    Evidence is aggregated for research

    Where research use has been agreed, the evidence joins an aggregated research base alongside other assessed organisations that share a sector, size band or market.

    Aggregated

  3. 03

    Cohort suppression is applied

    Before any aggregate is published, CTI’s cohort suppression rules decide whether the cohort is large enough for a figure to describe a population rather than the organisations in it. Where it is not, the figure is suppressed.

    Suppression

  4. 04

    A finding is published with provenance

    The finding is published through CTIndex.org with its population, evidence classes, period and limitations stated. Publication fails where any of them is missing.

    Provenance

Population, sample and cohort

What does a CTI figure actually describe?

Population, sample and cohort are used interchangeably in commercial research, and they are not the same. Which of the three a figure describes decides what can legitimately be concluded from it, so every CTI publication states them.

Population

The group a figure claims to describe, stated beside every published figure as its population label.

Why it matters
A percentage without a population cannot be used, because nobody can tell whether it describes them.
What to check
Whether the stated population resembles your organisation, sector or market before applying the figure to it.
Sample

The number of organisations the evidence behind a figure was actually drawn from, stated as n where a count is meaningful.

Why it matters
The same percentage means something different drawn from twelve organisations and from twelve hundred.
What to check
Whether n is stated, and whether the publication notes that cohort suppression was applied to any comparison.
Cohort

The assessed organisations a finding is drawn from, defined by shared characteristics such as sector, size band or market region.

Why it matters
A CTI cohort is made of organisations that chose to be assessed. It supports findings about that cohort and is not a random sample of a market.
What to check
How the cohort is defined, and whether the finding is being read beyond the organisations it describes.

Publication states

  1. Suppressed Where CTI's cohort suppression rules find a cohort too small for an aggregate to describe a population, the figure is not published, and any publication drawing on that cohort states that suppression was applied.
  2. Published with provenance Where the rules permit, the figure is published with its population, evidence classes, period and limitations stated beside it, and every chart carries its source, period and sample note.

The suppression rules are applied in the CTI assessment environment before a publication reaches CTIndex.org, so publication cannot bypass them.

Apply it to yourself

Which evidence classes could your organisation supply?

Three questions about what exists in your organisation, and a reading of which classes of evidence you could currently supply and what each would let a finding claim. That is what decides how far a CTI assessment can go, and which route fits.

Answered in the page. Nothing is sent, and no contact details are requested.

Check your evidence readiness

Which classes of evidence could your organisation actually supply?

Three questions about what exists, and what each class would let a finding claim.

~45 sec

Progress: Question 1 of 3

Observed How much of your commercial proposition is stated publicly?

The rule behind every figure

A figure becomes a finding when its terms are stated.

What the figure describes: the measure and the population it applies to. Who or what it represents: the cohort it was drawn from and the sample behind it. What period it covers, so it is read against the conditions of the time. What evidence class supports it: observed, self-reported, validated or source-specific.

With those stated, a reader can draw the conclusions the evidence supports and can see which it does not. A self-reported figure describes what participants reported. An observed figure describes what was visible at the time. A cohort figure describes the assessed organisations rather than the market they sit in. The Commercial Transformation Index publishes every figure with its terms, so none of those distinctions has to be guessed.

Where the evidence comes from

Where does CTI evidence come from?

CTI evidence comes from four source classes: assessment evidence contributed by organisations that were assessed, public commercial evidence observed the way any visitor or search engine would see it, external and public datasets that describe the operating environment, and named external sources interpreted through the CTI methodology. Every source is either contributed by the organisation itself, publicly observable, or published by a named source with its own method stated.

  • First-party

    Assessment evidence

    Evidence gathered during CTI assessments. It is private to the assessed organisation by default and contributes to published intelligence only in aggregate, where research use has been agreed and cohort suppression rules permit. Never published as an individual organisation, result or score.
  • Observed

    Public commercial evidence

    What organisations make public about themselves and what machines can extract from it, gathered the way any visitor or search engine would, needing no access and no permission. Describes the organisation at the time it was observed.
  • Contextual

    External and public datasets

    Official economic and sector statistics and published market research, used to frame a finding: the conditions a cohort operates in, and how they are changing. Describes the environment, never a specific organisation.
  • Source-specific

    Named external sources

    Evidence from a named source, such as a published business survey or the membership of a chamber or industry body, interpreted through the CTI methodology and published with the source named and its population stated. What it can establish depends on the source and its provenance.

Privacy and aggregation

Is an individual CTI assessment result published?

No. An individual assessment result is private by default: it belongs to the organisation that was assessed, and CTIndex.org does not publish it. Research use of contributed evidence is a separate consent, recorded on its own terms rather than bundled with the assessment, and what reaches publication is the aggregate, inside a cohort that clears the suppression rules.

  • Individual results are private by default and stay in the assessment environment
  • Research use of contributed evidence is a separate, recorded consent
  • Published figures are aggregates: no individual organisation, result or score is published
  • Where a cohort is too small, the figure is suppressed and the publication says so
  • Handling is set out in full in the privacy notice

Dates, revisions and withdrawals

How are CTI findings kept current and corrected?

Every CTI publication states the period its evidence covers and carries a publication date and a modified date. A substantive revision creates a new version with a revision note and advances the modified date. A finding that can no longer be supported is withdrawn, with its record retained and the reason stated, and a superseded publication identifies the one that replaces it.

  • Every publication states the period its evidence covers
  • Substantive revisions are versioned, dated and carry a revision note
  • Withdrawn findings are retained as a record with the reason stated
  • Superseded publications identify the publication that replaces them
  • A redeploy never changes a publication's modified date; only a substantive revision does

What each class can and cannot establish

What can each CTI evidence class establish?

Each evidence class supports a different claim, and its limit is part of what the class means rather than a disclaimer at the end. Reading a finding within the limits of its class is what makes the finding usable.

  1. Observed

    Establishes
    What an organisation makes visible and what a machine can read from it, at the time it was observed.
    Cannot
    See inside the organisation, or show that what was visible last month is visible now.
    Supports
    Comparable findings across organisations, and the Free and In-Depth Website Audits.
  2. Self-reported

    Establishes
    How participants describe their own commercial systems.
    Cannot
    Be presented as audited fact.
    Supports
    An indicative Commercial Maturity Band when combined with observed evidence.
  3. Validated CTI evidence

    Establishes
    What reviewed evidence proves about a commercial system, across all ten domains.
    Cannot
    Exist without assessor review, so it describes assessed organisations rather than a market at large.
    Supports
    A validated Commercial Maturity Band and a CTI Score.
  4. Source-specific

    Establishes
    The conditions a cohort operates in, and what a named source’s evidence shows.
    Cannot
    Establish anything about a specific organisation on its own.
    Supports
    Context for a finding, and source-specific intelligence attributed to its source.

Frequently asked questions

Questions about CTI data and provenance

Direct answers about where CTI evidence comes from, what each evidence class can support, what happens to assessment data, how populations and cohorts are defined, and how findings are dated, revised and withdrawn.

Where does CTI data come from?

Commercial Transformation Index data comes from four sources, and each is classified before it is used. Observed evidence is gathered from what an organisation makes public, such as its website and the signals AI systems and search engines can read from it. Self-reported evidence is what a participant states during an assessment. Validated evidence has been reviewed by an assessor in a Full CTI Audit. Source-specific evidence comes from named external market, economic and sector sources. Every published figure names the classes behind it.

What is observed evidence in the Commercial Transformation Index?

Observed evidence is externally observable signals gathered through scans and public sources: what an organisation states publicly about who it serves, what it solves and why, and what a machine can extract from that. It is gathered the way any visitor or search engine would see it, so it needs no access and no permission, and it describes the organisation at the time it was observed.

What is self-reported evidence?

Self-reported evidence is what a participant states about their own commercial system during an assessment. It is a legitimate evidence class, and it is never presented as audited fact: a finding that rests on it is labelled self-reported wherever it appears. Combined with observed evidence it supports the indicative result of the Commercial Maturity Assessment.

What is validated CTI evidence?

Validated CTI evidence is evidence an assessor has reviewed against supporting material in a Full CTI Audit. It is the highest CTI confidence tier and the only class that supports a validated Commercial Maturity Band and a CTI Score. Because it requires assessor review, it exists for assessed organisations rather than for a market at large.

What is source-specific evidence?

Source-specific evidence is evidence from external market, economic and sector sources, including a named source whose own evidence the Commercial Transformation Index interprets through its methodology. What it can establish depends on the source and its provenance, so it is published with the source named and attributed. It frames a finding and never establishes anything about a specific organisation on its own.

Does CTI use private company information?

Only what an organisation provides during its own assessment. That evidence belongs to the organisation and is private by default. It contributes to aggregated research only where research use has been agreed, which is recorded as a consent separate from the consent that delivers the assessment itself.

Is an individual CTI assessment result published?

No. An individual assessment result is private by default and stays in the assessment environment. CTIndex.org publishes aggregated findings about defined populations, not individual organisations, results or scores. There is no mechanism on CTIndex.org for publishing an individual result.

How is assessment evidence aggregated and anonymised?

Published figures are aggregates over a cohort of assessed organisations, not individual records. Before an aggregate can be published, cohort suppression rules are applied in the assessment environment: where a cohort is too small for a figure to describe a population rather than the organisations in it, the figure is suppressed, and any publication drawing on that cohort states that suppression was applied.

What is the difference between population, sample and cohort in CTI research?

The population is the group a figure claims to describe, stated beside every published figure as its population label. The sample is the number of organisations the evidence was actually drawn from, stated as n where a count is meaningful. The cohort is the set of assessed organisations a finding is drawn from, defined by shared characteristics such as sector, size band or market region. A CTI cohort is made of organisations that chose to be assessed and is not a random sample of a market.

What does a CTI publication have to state before a figure is published?

Every Commercial Transformation Index publication states the population its figures describe, the evidence classes they rest on, the period they cover and the limitations of what they can establish. Every chart carries its source, period and sample note. Publication fails where any of these is missing, so no statistical claim is rendered without its sample context.

How large does a cohort have to be before CTI publishes a finding?

Large enough to clear the cohort suppression rules applied in the CTI assessment environment before a publication is produced. The rules exist so that a figure describes a population rather than the organisations in it; where a cohort does not clear them, the figure is suppressed and the publication says so. The rules are applied before publication, not chosen once a result is known.

How current is CTI data?

Every Commercial Transformation Index publication states the period its evidence covers and carries a publication date and a modified date. Observed evidence describes the organisation at the time it was observed; self-reported and validated evidence describe the assessment period. A reader can therefore judge whether a figure still applies before using it.

How are CTI findings revised, corrected or withdrawn?

A substantive revision creates a new version of the publication, advances its modified date and may carry a revision note. A finding that can no longer be supported is withdrawn: the record is retained and the reason for withdrawal is stated, so a citation never points at a silently deleted page. A publication that has been superseded identifies the publication that replaces it.

What is provenance in CTI research?

Provenance is the record of where a finding came from: its source, the methodology version it was produced under, the period it covers, the population it describes, the evidence classes behind it and the limits of what it can establish. The Commercial Transformation Index carries provenance with every published figure, which is what lets a figure be quoted accurately, challenged specifically and cited.

How should I interpret the limits stated on a CTI finding?

As part of what the finding means. A self-reported figure describes what participants reported. An observed figure describes what was visible at the time. A cohort figure describes the assessed organisations, not the market they sit in. A source-specific figure depends on its source. Reading a finding within its stated limits is what makes it usable in a decision that somebody else will examine.